Scouting Report
Ryan Johnson holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smithson wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Johnson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.8% vs Johnson 60.0% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 79.0%
Defensive zone
Johnson 51.2%
Neutral zone
Johnson 58.0%
Result
Ryan Johnson favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Smithson
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Smithson
Johnson
Last 5: Smithson 4-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
3
0
Smithson
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Smithson
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (778)
63.8% (260)
-4.0%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
50.0% (4)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (198)
63.0% (46)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots left. Smithson is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Smithson shoots right. Johnson is 64.4% vs right-shot opponents (87).
Home / Away
Smithson
Johnson
Home
59.2% (534)
69.8% (126)
Away
55.5% (472)
58.6% (186)
By Period
Smithson
Johnson
P1
56.1%
63.0%
P2
58.0%
61.8%
P3
58.6%
66.0%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
65.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.5%
Johnson
66.0%▬
65.5%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2011 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Ryan Johnson |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |