Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Backes wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 44.9% vs Kesler 57.0% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 83.4%
Defensive zone
Backes 87.9%
Neutral zone
Backes 82.3%
Result
David Backes favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Backes
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
13
(17 meetings)
4
13
Backes
Kesler
Last 10: Backes 2-8 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Backes
Kesler
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
3
Backes
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
7
Backes
Kesler
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (819)
57.3% (1,022)
-12.0%
Power Play
42.1% (190)
61.5% (200)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
54.9% (257)
-14.4%
On power play, Kesler has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Backes is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (231).
Backes shoots right. Kesler is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Backes
Kesler
Home
42.9% (581)
58.6% (766)
Away
46.1% (557)
56.2% (730)
By Period
Backes
Kesler
P1
40.1%
58.9%
P2
47.3%
56.8%
P3
45.1%
57.5%
OT
57.1%
31.6%
Final 5 min
40.5%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2011 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 09:42 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 02:53 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 14, 2011 | 2 | 07:37 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 20, 2010 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2010 | 1 | 17:03 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 3 | 06:46 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 3 | 02:48 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 2 | 00:24 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 1 | 15:58 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 1 | 13:01 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |