Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 53.6%). Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.7% vs Kesler 53.3% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 53.0%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 64.0%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 57.3%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
MacKenzie
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
MacKenzie
Kesler
Last 9: MacKenzie 8-1 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
5
1
MacKenzie
Kesler
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
0
MacKenzie
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (370)
53.8% (981)
+1.3%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
56.9% (160)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
49.2% (185)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. MacKenzie is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (136).
MacKenzie shoots left. Kesler is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (959).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Kesler
Home
56.1% (228)
54.1% (690)
Away
52.7% (201)
53.1% (661)
By Period
MacKenzie
Kesler
P1
53.4%
52.3%
P2
55.1%
52.8%
P3
53.9%
56.3%
OT
100.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
54.2%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.5%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2011 | OT | 02:30 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 13:37 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 05:35 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 07:27 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |