Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Skinner wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 51.6% vs Kesler 55.2% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 95.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 92.1%
Neutral zone
Skinner 53.9%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Skinner
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Skinner
Kesler
Last 5: Skinner 2-3 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
2
0
Skinner
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Skinner
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (200)
55.7% (741)
-8.2%
Power Play
62.0% (100)
67.0% (100)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
50.0% (204)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Skinner is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Skinner shoots left. Kesler is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Home / Away
Skinner
Kesler
Home
58.9% (158)
52.5% (522)
Away
44.8% (143)
58.9% (523)
By Period
Skinner
Kesler
P1
49.0%
56.7%
P2
47.4%
56.8%
P3
59.6%
54.1%
OT
50.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
52.2%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |