Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.3% vs Kesler 53.3% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 77.4%
Defensive zone
Smithson 69.0%
Neutral zone
Kesler 60.7%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Smithson
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Smithson
Kesler
Last 8: Smithson 2-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
4
Smithson
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Smithson
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (518)
53.8% (981)
+4.1%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
56.9% (160)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (108)
49.2% (185)
+0.8%
On power play, Kesler has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Smithson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Smithson shoots right. Kesler is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Smithson
Kesler
Home
57.8% (306)
54.1% (690)
Away
54.6% (339)
53.1% (661)
By Period
Smithson
Kesler
P1
51.8%
52.3%
P2
54.8%
52.8%
P3
62.0%
56.3%
OT
25.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
48.6%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2012 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 1, 2011 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 1, 2011 | 1 | 14:45 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 3 | 03:50 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |