Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +22.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 33.1% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 38.9% vs Kesler 58.0% (-22.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 74.5%
Defensive zone
Kesler 79.2%
Neutral zone
Kesler 59.4%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Hayes
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Hayes
Kesler
Last 7: Hayes 3-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Hayes
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Hayes
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (362)
58.6% (1,138)
-23.2%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
64.5% (186)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
55.0% (351)
-55.0%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +55.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Hayes is 33.1% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Hayes shoots left. Kesler is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,168).
Home / Away
Hayes
Kesler
Home
36.8% (212)
61.0% (859)
Away
34.9% (169)
55.9% (816)
By Period
Hayes
Kesler
P1
40.3%
59.1%
P2
31.1%
56.5%
P3
34.2%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
29.6%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 06:04 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 17:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 01:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |