Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arcobello 50.8% vs Kesler 52.5% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arcobello 53.8%
Defensive zone
Arcobello 51.2%
Neutral zone
Kesler 50.1%
Result
Mark Arcobello favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Arcobello
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Arcobello
Kesler
Last 9: Arcobello 3-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arcobello
2
1
Arcobello
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Arcobello
Kesler
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
4
Arcobello
Kesler
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arcobello
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (344)
53.8% (1,005)
-1.2%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
56.6% (205)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (28)
42.3% (196)
-6.6%
On power play, Kesler has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Arcobello is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (138).
Arcobello shoots right. Kesler is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (424).
Home / Away
Arcobello
Kesler
Home
53.8% (173)
54.1% (719)
Away
48.9% (231)
51.1% (687)
By Period
Arcobello
Kesler
P1
51.6%
53.1%
P2
50.7%
54.5%
P3
51.1%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
46.7%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arcobello
58.0%▲
56.5%
51.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2014 | 2 | 14:04 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 5, 2013 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Oct 5, 2013 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 5, 2013 | 1 | 03:42 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |