Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Bonino wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 44.2% vs Kesler 53.3% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 81.1%
Defensive zone
Kesler 78.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 90.0%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 87.7%
12.3%
87.7%
Bonino
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Bonino
Kesler
Last 8: Bonino 6-2 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
2
0
Bonino
Kesler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
4
2
Bonino
Kesler
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (423)
53.8% (981)
-10.5%
Power Play
45.5% (22)
56.9% (160)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
49.2% (185)
-29.2%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Bonino is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Bonino shoots left. Kesler is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (959).
Home / Away
Bonino
Kesler
Home
44.1% (222)
54.1% (690)
Away
41.8% (232)
53.1% (661)
By Period
Bonino
Kesler
P1
43.9%
52.3%
P2
43.4%
52.8%
P3
41.6%
56.3%
OT
0.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
44.8%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
43.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 15, 2012 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 1 | 09:05 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |