Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.0% vs 56.0%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 46 meetings). Kesler wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 61-53 in 114 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 53.4%
Defensive zone
Kesler 64.5%
Neutral zone
Kesler 60.4%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Kesler
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
53
-
61
(114 meetings)
53
61
Kesler
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kesler 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
21
25
Kesler
O'Reilly
46 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
19
21
Kesler
O'Reilly
40 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
15
Kesler
O'Reilly
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (8,095)
56.2% (15,260)
+0.2%
Power Play
60.7% (1,437)
58.8% (3,445)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (1,908)
51.4% (2,811)
-0.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Kesler shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Kesler
O'Reilly
Home
57.2% (5,732)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
54.7% (5,751)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Kesler
O'Reilly
P1
56.5%
55.6%
P2
55.9%
57.0%
P3
56.1%
55.1%
OT
46.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
56.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 10:30 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 17:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 14:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 08:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |