Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kesler wins 58.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.6% vs O'Reilly 52.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 53.9%
Defensive zone
Kesler 54.8%
Neutral zone
Kesler 52.9%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Kesler
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kesler
O'Reilly
Last 5: Kesler 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kesler
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
0
Kesler
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Kesler
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.6% (231)
53.6% (392)
+4.0%
Power Play
65.5% (29)
47.2% (36)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (43)
50.0% (28)
+1.2%
On power play, Kesler has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kesler is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kesler shoots right. O'Reilly is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Kesler
O'Reilly
Home
58.8% (114)
54.4% (237)
Away
56.6% (189)
51.1% (219)
By Period
Kesler
O'Reilly
P1
60.8%
50.3%
P2
60.0%
51.4%
P3
52.5%
55.7%
OT
66.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
58.9%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 11:08 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |