Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Kesler wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 56.0% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 67.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 67.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 60.7%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
Kesler
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Kesler
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kesler 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
5
2
Kesler
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
1
Kesler
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
0
Kesler
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.4% (1,185)
52.7% (900)
+4.7%
Power Play
58.0% (243)
55.6% (225)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (236)
54.5% (209)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kesler is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,075).
Kesler shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Kesler
O'Reilly
Home
58.5% (793)
55.1% (693)
Away
54.3% (871)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Kesler
O'Reilly
P1
57.0%
51.5%
P2
55.4%
54.7%
P3
56.7%
52.7%
OT
54.8%
69.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 2 | 10:01 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 2, 2014 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2014 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |