Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kesler wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 53.3% vs Gagner 47.9% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 55.7%
Defensive zone
Kesler 80.5%
Neutral zone
Kesler 81.6%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Kesler
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Kesler
Gagner
Last 9: Kesler 6-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Kesler
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
1
Kesler
Gagner
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
1
Kesler
Gagner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (981)
47.6% (599)
+6.2%
Power Play
56.9% (160)
47.7% (86)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (185)
60.0% (5)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Gagner has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Kesler is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Kesler shoots right. Gagner is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Kesler
Gagner
Home
54.1% (690)
49.5% (331)
Away
53.1% (661)
45.9% (370)
By Period
Kesler
Gagner
P1
52.3%
47.7%
P2
52.8%
43.9%
P3
56.3%
51.8%
OT
44.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
58.0%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 03:14 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 24, 2012 | OT | 03:29 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 08:13 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |