Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 52.9% vs Gagner 48.1% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 79.8%
Defensive zone
Kesler 73.1%
Neutral zone
Gagner 57.0%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Kesler
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Kesler
Gagner
Last 9: Kesler 4-5 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Kesler
Gagner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kesler
Gagner
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kesler
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (567)
47.3% (395)
+7.9%
Power Play
54.9% (51)
50.0% (62)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (131)
50.0% (4)
-5.0%
On even strength, Kesler has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Kesler is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (234).
Kesler shoots right. Gagner is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Kesler
Gagner
Home
55.7% (388)
49.4% (267)
Away
50.8% (362)
45.4% (194)
By Period
Kesler
Gagner
P1
56.3%
47.5%
P2
52.5%
48.5%
P3
52.6%
48.1%
OT
35.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.1%
58.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 11:59 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 15:40 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 00:58 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 05:47 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 05:41 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |