Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kesler wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.2% vs Aho 48.7% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 87.3%
Defensive zone
Aho 61.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 75.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 81.1%
18.9%
81.1%
Kesler
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kesler
Aho
Last 6: Kesler 1-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Kesler
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
0
Kesler
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Kesler
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (741)
47.4% (953)
+8.3%
Power Play
67.0% (100)
58.0% (174)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (204)
41.6% (77)
+8.4%
On power play, Kesler has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kesler is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Kesler shoots right. Aho is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
Kesler
Aho
Home
52.5% (522)
50.2% (609)
Away
58.9% (523)
46.9% (595)
By Period
Kesler
Aho
P1
56.7%
48.7%
P2
56.8%
50.2%
P3
54.1%
47.0%
OT
16.7%
41.7%
Final 5 min
54.3%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 04:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |