Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Kesler wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 53.3% vs Stamkos 45.8% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 74.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 74.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Kesler
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kesler
Stamkos
Last 6: Kesler 1-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Kesler
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Kesler
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kesler
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (981)
45.6% (1,055)
+8.2%
Power Play
56.9% (160)
46.6% (116)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (185)
42.1% (38)
+7.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kesler is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Kesler shoots right. Stamkos is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (337).
Home / Away
Kesler
Stamkos
Home
54.1% (690)
48.4% (636)
Away
53.1% (661)
42.3% (591)
By Period
Kesler
Stamkos
P1
52.3%
45.7%
P2
52.8%
46.8%
P3
56.3%
43.7%
OT
44.1%
48.0%
Final 5 min
58.0%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 02:42 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 2 | 17:09 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |