Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kesler wins 59.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 58.0% vs Stamkos 50.0% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 69.2%
Defensive zone
Kesler 91.4%
Neutral zone
Kesler 89.1%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Kesler
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Kesler
Stamkos
Last 8: Kesler 7-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
0
Kesler
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kesler
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
4
0
Kesler
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (1,138)
49.9% (771)
+8.7%
Power Play
64.5% (186)
55.4% (74)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (351)
45.1% (82)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kesler is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (507).
Kesler shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Kesler
Stamkos
Home
61.0% (859)
50.7% (487)
Away
55.9% (816)
49.1% (440)
By Period
Kesler
Stamkos
P1
59.1%
46.1%
P2
56.5%
52.0%
P3
60.5%
51.1%
OT
44.4%
54.5%
Final 5 min
61.3%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2015 | 3 | 19:56 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 2, 2015 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 2, 2015 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 01:12 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |