Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings). Kesler wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 36-25 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.9%
Defensive zone
Kesler 72.3%
Neutral zone
Kesler 60.3%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Kesler
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
25
(61 meetings)
36
25
Kesler
Hertl
Last 10: Kesler 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
11
7
Kesler
Hertl
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
13
5
Kesler
Hertl
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
12
13
Kesler
Hertl
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (8,095)
53.8% (8,268)
+2.6%
Power Play
60.7% (1,437)
59.3% (1,975)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (1,908)
46.3% (806)
+4.2%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Kesler shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Kesler
Hertl
Home
57.2% (5,732)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
54.7% (5,751)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Kesler
Hertl
P1
56.5%
53.6%
P2
55.9%
54.1%
P3
56.1%
55.3%
OT
46.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 03:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 09:41 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 02:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 19:16 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |