Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kesler wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 58.0% vs Hertl 54.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 51.3%
Defensive zone
Kesler 77.3%
Neutral zone
Kesler 63.5%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Kesler
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kesler
Hertl
Last 8: Kesler 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kesler
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
0
Kesler
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
1
Kesler
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (1,138)
55.0% (382)
+3.6%
Power Play
64.5% (186)
59.7% (67)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (351)
75.0% (8)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kesler is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,168).
Kesler shoots right. Hertl is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Kesler
Hertl
Home
61.0% (859)
58.8% (221)
Away
55.9% (816)
53.4% (236)
By Period
Kesler
Hertl
P1
59.1%
52.6%
P2
56.5%
53.6%
P3
60.5%
62.4%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
61.3%
61.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2016 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 2, 2016 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 04:22 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |