Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kesler wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 52.5% vs Seguin 42.6% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 72.1%
Defensive zone
Seguin 71.5%
Neutral zone
Seguin 68.7%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Kesler
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kesler
Seguin
Last 8: Kesler 3-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kesler
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kesler
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
3
Kesler
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,005)
41.1% (649)
+12.7%
Power Play
56.6% (205)
54.2% (24)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (196)
25.0% (4)
+17.3%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Kesler is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (424).
Kesler shoots right. Seguin is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Kesler
Seguin
Home
54.1% (719)
44.4% (338)
Away
51.1% (687)
38.6% (339)
By Period
Kesler
Seguin
P1
53.1%
37.8%
P2
54.5%
45.5%
P3
50.3%
41.9%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
52.6%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 17, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |