Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sobotka on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kesler wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 57.0% vs Sobotka 51.3% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 85.3%
Defensive zone
Kesler 72.8%
Neutral zone
Kesler 80.3%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Kesler
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kesler
Sobotka
Last 8: Kesler 5-3 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sobotka
1
2
Kesler
Sobotka
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
1
Kesler
Sobotka
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
0
Kesler
Sobotka
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
57.3% (1,022)
55.4% (323)
+1.9%
Power Play
61.5% (200)
42.9% (28)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
54.9% (257)
38.5% (65)
+16.4%
On power play, Kesler has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Kesler shoots right. Sobotka is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (128).
Home / Away
Kesler
Sobotka
Home
58.6% (766)
52.1% (213)
Away
56.2% (730)
51.0% (206)
By Period
Kesler
Sobotka
P1
58.9%
51.2%
P2
56.8%
49.0%
P3
57.5%
54.0%
OT
31.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.9%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2011 | 2 | 08:50 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 16:47 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 14, 2011 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Feb 14, 2011 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Dec 20, 2010 | 1 | 06:42 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2010 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 1 | 11:39 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |