Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaunce on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaunce wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs McLeod 47.8% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaunce 72.8%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 79.0%
Neutral zone
Gaunce 74.6%
Result
Brendan Gaunce favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Gaunce
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Gaunce
McLeod
Last 6: Gaunce 5-1 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
2
0
Gaunce
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaunce
2
1
Gaunce
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
49.2% (796)
+8.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
44.8% (87)
-44.8%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
43.3% (263)
+8.7%
On power play, McLeod has a +44.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Gaunce is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Gaunce shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Gaunce
McLeod
Home
54.8% (93)
49.2% (575)
Away
59.1% (88)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Gaunce
McLeod
P1
62.3%
52.8%
P2
48.1%
45.1%
P3
59.5%
45.6%
Final 5 min
51.2%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:52 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:04 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |