Scouting Report
Steve Ott holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ott on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 36.8% vs left-shot opponents — Ott shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 39.3% vs Ott 55.0% (-18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 84.2%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 72.9%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 86.4%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Nugent-Hopkins
Ott
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Nugent-Hopkins
Ott
Last 8: Nugent-Hopkins 1-7 Ott
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ott
0
5
Nugent-Hopkins
Ott
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ott
1
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Ott
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Ott
Edge
Even Strength
37.1% (566)
56.9% (705)
-19.8%
Power Play
54.5% (22)
55.8% (154)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
48.3% (145)
-8.3%
On even strength, Ott has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ott shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 36.8% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Ott is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Ott
Home
37.5% (312)
54.9% (526)
Away
37.5% (293)
56.1% (485)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Ott
P1
35.4%
55.4%
P2
37.8%
54.0%
P3
39.9%
56.1%
OT
28.6%
73.7%
Final 5 min
37.1%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
37.5%
Ott
60.0%▲
53.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2012 | 1 | 18:39 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 16:14 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 15:00 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 02:20 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Steve Ott |