Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Shaw wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 53.7% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Shaw 81.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 53.4%
Neutral zone
Shaw 65.9%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Shaw
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Shaw
O'Reilly
Last 10: Shaw 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Shaw
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
6
Shaw
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
1
0
Shaw
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (336)
57.9% (1,179)
-1.6%
Power Play
51.0% (96)
63.0% (292)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
53.8% (320)
-37.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Shaw is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Shaw shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Shaw
O'Reilly
Home
58.1% (234)
61.3% (884)
Away
50.5% (204)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Shaw
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
55.5%
P2
58.3%
61.0%
P3
52.0%
56.8%
OT
33.3%
67.7%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 10:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 08:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |