Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Boyle wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boyle 46.2% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boyle 71.6%
Defensive zone
Boyle 76.9%
Neutral zone
Boyle 78.5%
Result
Brian Boyle favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Boyle
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Boyle
O'Reilly
Last 5: Boyle 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Boyle
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Boyle
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boyle
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (290)
56.6% (1,064)
-9.0%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
60.4% (260)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
35.2% (71)
54.0% (261)
-18.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Boyle is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Boyle shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Boyle
O'Reilly
Home
44.2% (199)
54.9% (801)
Away
46.4% (166)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Boyle
O'Reilly
P1
48.6%
58.0%
P2
40.4%
56.7%
P3
46.4%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
41.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boyle
40.0%▼
42.0%
45.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Brian Boyle |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 05:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |