Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Josefson wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Josefson 48.0% vs O'Reilly 51.6% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Josefson 52.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 79.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Josefson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Josefson
O'Reilly
Last 5: Josefson 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Josefson
1
0
Josefson
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Josefson
1
0
Josefson
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Josefson
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Josefson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (169)
53.4% (770)
-4.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
55.6% (54)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.4% (196)
+55.6%
On penalty kill, Josefson has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Josefson is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Josefson shoots left. O'Reilly is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Josefson
O'Reilly
Home
44.8% (116)
53.5% (533)
Away
50.0% (86)
50.0% (492)
By Period
Josefson
O'Reilly
P1
47.1%
50.8%
P2
48.1%
52.4%
P3
45.9%
51.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Josefson
42.0%▼
44.0%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2010 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Jacob Josefson |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Jacob Josefson |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jacob Josefson |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 1 | 11:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |