Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Iginla on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Iginla 50.2% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Iginla
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Iginla
O'Reilly
Last 9: Iginla 7-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Iginla
6
1
Iginla
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Iginla
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Iginla
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (307)
52.5% (1,177)
-1.0%
Power Play
45.4% (108)
54.6% (130)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
71.4% (7)
52.8% (108)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Iginla has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Iginla is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (338).
Iginla shoots right. O'Reilly is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Iginla
O'Reilly
Home
53.0% (217)
54.9% (669)
Away
47.4% (209)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Iginla
O'Reilly
P1
53.1%
52.4%
P2
48.6%
56.1%
P3
50.0%
49.8%
OT
38.5%
57.7%
Final 5 min
53.4%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Iginla
44.0%▼
49.5%
50.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Jarome Iginla |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Jarome Iginla |
| Mar 20, 2012 | 1 | 17:36 | Offensive | Jarome Iginla |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Jarome Iginla |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 3 | 16:50 | Offensive | Jarome Iginla |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 2 | 07:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 14:24 | Defensive | Jarome Iginla |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Jarome Iginla |