Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lehtera 50.0% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lehtera 84.3%
Defensive zone
Lehtera 79.4%
Neutral zone
Lehtera 80.9%
Result
Jori Lehtera favored at 80.8%
80.8%
19.2%
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Last 9: Lehtera 1-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lehtera
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Lehtera
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Lehtera
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (843)
56.9% (1,203)
-8.0%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
60.2% (329)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (30)
50.4% (280)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lehtera is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Lehtera shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Home
51.7% (520)
58.6% (879)
Away
48.1% (449)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Lehtera
O'Reilly
P1
52.8%
55.6%
P2
54.0%
57.9%
P3
43.0%
55.7%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
46.9%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
50.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 1 | 13:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 2 | 03:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |