Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lehtera 50.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 21-13 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Lehtera 85.7%
Defensive zone
Lehtera 82.8%
Neutral zone
Lehtera 81.1%
Result
Jori Lehtera favored at 82.8%
82.8%
17.2%
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
21
(34 meetings)
13
21
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lehtera 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lehtera
5
2
Lehtera
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
13
Lehtera
O'Reilly
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lehtera
7
6
Lehtera
O'Reilly
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (2,714)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.8%
Power Play
55.8% (339)
58.8% (3,445)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (104)
51.4% (2,811)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lehtera is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,033).
Lehtera shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Lehtera
O'Reilly
Home
53.7% (1,668)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.4% (1,489)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Lehtera
O'Reilly
P1
53.2%
55.6%
P2
50.6%
57.0%
P3
48.1%
55.1%
OT
54.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
50.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2017 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 13:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 1 | 13:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 2 | 03:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |