Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Jokinen on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Jokinen wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jokinen 54.0% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Jokinen 56.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.2%
Neutral zone
Jokinen 50.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Jokinen 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jokinen
4
1
Jokinen
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
5
Jokinen
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,931)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.4%
Power Play
55.9% (506)
58.8% (3,445)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (279)
51.4% (2,811)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Jokinen has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jokinen is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,735).
Jokinen shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Jokinen
O'Reilly
Home
57.8% (1,369)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
50.4% (1,357)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Jokinen
O'Reilly
P1
53.4%
55.6%
P2
54.4%
57.0%
P3
53.7%
55.1%
OT
66.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jokinen
44.0%▼
56.0%
54.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2017 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 12, 2015 | 3 | 02:18 | Defensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Nov 12, 2015 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Nov 12, 2015 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 09:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 1 | 19:40 | Defensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Jan 15, 2015 | 2 | 17:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2014 | OT | 04:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 3 | 13:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Dec 3, 2010 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |