Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kruger wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kruger 54.0% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kruger 51.4%
Defensive zone
Kruger 61.4%
Neutral zone
Kruger 60.1%
Result
Marcus Kruger favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Kruger
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kruger
O'Reilly
Last 5: Kruger 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Kruger
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kruger
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kruger
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.4% (244)
60.3% (1,517)
-2.9%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
61.5% (387)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (38)
55.0% (220)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kruger is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Kruger shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,411).
Home / Away
Kruger
O'Reilly
Home
60.0% (135)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
51.3% (152)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Kruger
O'Reilly
P1
52.9%
56.8%
P2
58.3%
64.6%
P3
55.6%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kruger
50.0%▬
51.0%
55.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 05:04 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 1 | 12:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |