Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 48.7% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 74.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.4%
Neutral zone
Erat 55.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Erat
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Erat
O'Reilly
Last 5: Erat 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Erat
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Erat
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (80)
52.5% (1,177)
-6.2%
Power Play
51.2% (41)
54.6% (130)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
52.8% (108)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Erat is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (74).
Erat shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Erat
O'Reilly
Home
60.9% (64)
54.9% (669)
Away
33.9% (62)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Erat
O'Reilly
P1
41.9%
52.4%
P2
47.2%
56.1%
P3
54.3%
49.8%
OT
0.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
47.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2012 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Martin Erat |