Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 50.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-18 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.4%
Defensive zone
Richards 51.2%
Neutral zone
Richards 52.9%
Result
Mike Richards favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Richards
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
18
(36 meetings)
18
18
Richards
O'Reilly
Last 10: Richards 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
7
6
Richards
O'Reilly
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richards
6
1
Richards
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
11
Richards
O'Reilly
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (3,722)
56.2% (15,260)
-6.2%
Power Play
54.6% (445)
58.8% (3,445)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (502)
51.4% (2,811)
+0.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Richards is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,122).
Richards shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Richards
O'Reilly
Home
50.8% (2,363)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
50.3% (2,336)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Richards
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
55.6%
P2
52.3%
57.0%
P3
49.3%
55.1%
OT
58.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 13:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 04:06 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 08:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 05:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 01:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 1 | 17:16 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 04:49 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 3 | 01:23 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 1 | 14:30 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 22, 2012 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 22, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2012 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 22, 2012 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 22, 2012 | 2 | 03:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |