Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Marleau wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marleau 47.8% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marleau 83.9%
Defensive zone
Marleau 81.9%
Neutral zone
Marleau 81.4%
Result
Patrick Marleau favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Marleau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Marleau
O'Reilly
Last 6: Marleau 0-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Marleau
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Marleau
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marleau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (274)
58.6% (841)
-12.6%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
59.9% (207)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
58.1% (148)
+0.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marleau is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (186).
Marleau shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Marleau
O'Reilly
Home
46.9% (209)
59.8% (594)
Away
47.3% (91)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Marleau
O'Reilly
P1
51.0%
61.7%
P2
47.1%
56.2%
P3
43.8%
59.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2021 | OT | 02:23 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |