Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kesler wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 57.0% vs O'Reilly 51.6% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 59.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Kesler
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Kesler
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kesler 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Kesler
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Kesler
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Kesler
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.3% (1,022)
53.4% (770)
+3.9%
Power Play
61.5% (200)
55.6% (54)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
54.9% (257)
44.4% (196)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Kesler shoots right. O'Reilly is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Kesler
O'Reilly
Home
58.6% (766)
53.5% (533)
Away
56.2% (730)
50.0% (492)
By Period
Kesler
O'Reilly
P1
58.9%
50.8%
P2
56.8%
52.4%
P3
57.5%
51.6%
OT
31.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2011 | 3 | 11:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 2, 2011 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 2, 2011 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 14:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |