Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kesler wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 58.0% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.3%
Defensive zone
Kesler 71.9%
Neutral zone
Kesler 59.8%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Kesler
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Kesler
O'Reilly
Last 7: Kesler 6-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
1
Kesler
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
0
Kesler
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
0
Kesler
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (1,138)
56.9% (1,203)
+1.7%
Power Play
64.5% (186)
60.2% (329)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (351)
50.4% (280)
+4.6%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kesler is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,168).
Kesler shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
Home / Away
Kesler
O'Reilly
Home
61.0% (859)
58.6% (879)
Away
55.9% (816)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Kesler
O'Reilly
P1
59.1%
55.6%
P2
56.5%
57.9%
P3
60.5%
55.7%
OT
44.4%
62.5%
Final 5 min
61.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 19:19 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 03:08 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 18:47 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |