Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kesler wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.2% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 79.1%
Neutral zone
Kesler 62.9%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Kesler
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Kesler
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kesler 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Kesler
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Kesler
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Kesler
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (741)
57.1% (1,367)
-1.4%
Power Play
67.0% (100)
59.4% (286)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (204)
52.5% (257)
-2.5%
On power play, Kesler has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kesler is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Kesler shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
Home / Away
Kesler
O'Reilly
Home
52.5% (522)
59.2% (936)
Away
58.9% (523)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Kesler
O'Reilly
P1
56.7%
57.3%
P2
56.8%
57.5%
P3
54.1%
55.0%
OT
16.7%
71.1%
Final 5 min
54.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 10:30 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 17:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 14:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 08:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |