Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Smyth 45.8% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Smyth leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Smyth 56.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 65.5%
Neutral zone
Smyth 51.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
O'Reilly
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
O'Reilly
Smyth
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
2
O'Reilly
Smyth
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smyth
2
4
O'Reilly
Smyth
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Smyth
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
45.2% (456)
+11.0%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
51.8% (164)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
23.3% (43)
+28.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Smyth is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (434).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Smyth
Home
57.6% (10,762)
49.7% (340)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
40.5% (326)
By Period
O'Reilly
Smyth
P1
55.6%
48.3%
P2
57.0%
41.7%
P3
55.1%
46.5%
OT
62.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2013 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Dec 9, 2011 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 15:13 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |