Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 52.6% vs Smyth 46.4% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 80.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
O'Reilly
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
O'Reilly
Smyth
Last 7: O'Reilly 4-3 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Smyth
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smyth
1
2
O'Reilly
Smyth
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Smyth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (1,177)
40.0% (90)
+12.5%
Power Play
54.6% (130)
63.0% (46)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (108)
8.3% (12)
+44.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
O'Reilly shoots left. Smyth is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Smyth
Home
54.9% (669)
47.1% (68)
Away
51.0% (774)
41.5% (82)
By Period
O'Reilly
Smyth
P1
52.4%
45.8%
P2
56.1%
40.4%
P3
49.8%
45.8%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
30.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Dec 9, 2011 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 15:13 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |