Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Horcoff 49.6% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 34-30 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 62.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
30
(64 meetings)
34
30
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
10
5
O'Reilly
Horcoff
15 total
Defensive Zone
Even
14
14
O'Reilly
Horcoff
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
10
11
O'Reilly
Horcoff
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
50.6% (3,133)
+5.6%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
51.4% (555)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
43.0% (567)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Home
57.6% (10,762)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
O'Reilly
Horcoff
P1
55.6%
48.2%
P2
57.0%
49.5%
P3
55.1%
50.9%
OT
62.2%
51.9%
Final 5 min
55.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 27, 2015 | OT | 01:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2015 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 27, 2015 | 2 | 03:43 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 2 | 02:42 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 17:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 02:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 15:31 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:59 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:47 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 00:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 16:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |