Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.0% vs 55.5%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Ott shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Ott 55.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 25-18 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.5%
Defensive zone
Ott 61.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
O'Reilly
Ott
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
18
(43 meetings)
25
18
O'Reilly
Ott
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Ott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
12
4
O'Reilly
Ott
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ott
7
11
O'Reilly
Ott
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
3
O'Reilly
Ott
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Ott
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
57.2% (2,802)
-1.0%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
55.4% (567)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
49.9% (853)
+1.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ott shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Ott is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,552).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Ott
Home
57.6% (10,762)
56.8% (2,130)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
54.2% (2,103)
By Period
O'Reilly
Ott
P1
55.6%
56.7%
P2
57.0%
53.9%
P3
55.1%
55.7%
OT
62.2%
60.8%
Final 5 min
55.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Ott
60.0%▲
53.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2016 | 3 | 02:32 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 2 | 03:17 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 2 | 05:46 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 19:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 13:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 2 | 19:13 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 2 | 00:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 1 | 08:51 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 1 | 03:49 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Steve Ott |