Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Connolly 47.3% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 78.4%
Defensive zone
Connolly 87.7%
Neutral zone
Connolly 87.5%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 82.6%
17.4%
82.6%
O'Reilly
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
O'Reilly
Connolly
Last 10: O'Reilly 2-8 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
6
O'Reilly
Connolly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
O'Reilly
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
47.4% (1,307)
+8.8%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
50.2% (251)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
41.9% (186)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Connolly
Home
57.6% (10,762)
48.5% (870)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
45.9% (885)
By Period
O'Reilly
Connolly
P1
55.6%
47.4%
P2
57.0%
47.7%
P3
55.1%
47.0%
OT
62.2%
37.8%
Final 5 min
55.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2011 | OT | 00:47 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 14:25 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |