Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 57.6% vs Mitchell 54.0% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
O'Reilly
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
O'Reilly
Mitchell
Last 7: O'Reilly 5-2 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Mitchell
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
1
2
O'Reilly
Mitchell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (1,179)
53.8% (595)
+4.1%
Power Play
63.0% (292)
66.7% (6)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (320)
57.0% (151)
-3.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (696).
O'Reilly shoots left. Mitchell is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (521).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Mitchell
Home
61.3% (884)
57.9% (375)
Away
54.8% (907)
51.2% (377)
By Period
O'Reilly
Mitchell
P1
55.5%
57.9%
P2
61.0%
47.5%
P3
56.8%
58.8%
OT
67.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.6%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Mitchell
38.0%▼
45.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2017 | 3 | 16:32 | Defensive | Torrey Mitchell |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 11:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Torrey Mitchell |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 3 | 00:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |