Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Brouwer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Brouwer 50.5% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-2 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 86.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 93.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 85.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
2
(14 meetings)
12
2
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Last 10: O'Reilly 9-1 Brouwer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
0
O'Reilly
Brouwer
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
1
O'Reilly
Brouwer
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Brouwer
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
50.3% (702)
+5.9%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
53.7% (551)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
46.6% (412)
+4.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brouwer shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Brouwer is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Home
57.6% (10,762)
53.5% (854)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
47.3% (811)
By Period
O'Reilly
Brouwer
P1
55.6%
51.4%
P2
57.0%
49.3%
P3
55.1%
51.2%
OT
62.2%
43.5%
Final 5 min
55.3%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Brouwer
38.0%▼
46.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2018 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2018 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | OT | 01:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | OT | 01:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 3 | 19:27 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 2 | 03:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2015 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Troy Brouwer |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 2 | 08:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |