Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Czarnik on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Czarnik wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 45.8% vs Poehling 46.2% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 63.4%
Defensive zone
Poehling 80.5%
Neutral zone
Poehling 61.7%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Czarnik
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Czarnik
Poehling
Last 5: Czarnik 3-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Czarnik
Poehling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Czarnik
3
1
Czarnik
Poehling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (156)
46.5% (269)
-2.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
66.7% (3)
-66.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
42.4% (139)
-9.1%
On power play, Poehling has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Czarnik is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (113).
Czarnik shoots right. Poehling is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Poehling
Home
46.1% (76)
45.2% (177)
Away
40.5% (84)
45.3% (234)
By Period
Czarnik
Poehling
P1
44.2%
47.7%
P2
41.2%
44.4%
P3
44.6%
44.6%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.1%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
43.1%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:23 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 05:02 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |