Scouting Report
Jonathan Drouin holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 49.5% vs Poehling 47.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 80.9%
Defensive zone
Poehling 77.7%
Neutral zone
Poehling 56.1%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Drouin
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Drouin
Poehling
Last 5: Drouin 3-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
2
0
Drouin
Poehling
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Drouin
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (181)
49.8% (626)
-2.3%
Power Play
56.8% (44)
58.3% (12)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Drouin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Drouin shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Drouin
Poehling
Home
49.5% (97)
47.3% (404)
Away
49.2% (128)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Drouin
Poehling
P1
52.1%
53.5%
P2
51.5%
39.4%
P3
45.0%
49.1%
OT
50.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:50 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:49 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 04:37 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |