Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +16.6% FO% edge overall. Gaustad wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.9% vs Smyth 45.4% (+16.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaustad 53.9%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.8%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 85.0%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Gaustad
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Gaustad
Smyth
Last 5: Gaustad 4-1 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smyth
0
1
Gaustad
Smyth
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
0
Gaustad
Smyth
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
0
Gaustad
Smyth
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (353)
43.2% (155)
+16.6%
Power Play
66.7% (15)
50.0% (28)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (81)
31.6% (19)
+26.4%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. Gaustad is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Gaustad shoots left. Smyth is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Smyth
Home
62.1% (195)
42.2% (102)
Away
57.9% (254)
44.0% (100)
By Period
Gaustad
Smyth
P1
59.4%
50.8%
P2
58.1%
41.3%
P3
61.3%
39.0%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.7%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2013 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 18:51 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |