Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). MacKenzie wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.7% vs Koivu 52.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Koivu leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 50.3%
Defensive zone
Koivu 67.4%
Neutral zone
Koivu 56.1%
Result
Saku Koivu favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
MacKenzie
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
MacKenzie
Koivu
Last 10: MacKenzie 4-6 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Koivu
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKenzie
Koivu
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
1
5
MacKenzie
Koivu
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (370)
52.2% (805)
+2.9%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
59.9% (152)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
49.0% (239)
+0.0%
On power play, Koivu has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. MacKenzie is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (293).
MacKenzie shoots left. Koivu is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (872).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Koivu
Home
56.1% (228)
54.0% (639)
Away
52.7% (201)
50.7% (594)
By Period
MacKenzie
Koivu
P1
53.4%
52.7%
P2
55.1%
50.4%
P3
53.9%
54.1%
OT
100.0%
47.8%
Final 5 min
54.2%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.5%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2012 | 3 | 05:27 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 07:09 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 8, 2012 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 3 | 15:36 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 2 | 02:54 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 14:32 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 05:07 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |