Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Koivu 52.2% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 95.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 72.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 87.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
Pavelski
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
Pavelski
Koivu
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
1
Pavelski
Koivu
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Koivu
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Koivu
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
52.2% (805)
+5.6%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
59.9% (152)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
49.0% (239)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Koivu is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (361).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Koivu
Home
61.0% (403)
54.0% (639)
Away
56.6% (461)
50.7% (594)
By Period
Pavelski
Koivu
P1
62.9%
52.7%
P2
56.6%
50.4%
P3
57.1%
54.1%
OT
57.9%
47.8%
Final 5 min
53.6%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2012 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 2 | 17:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 2 | 11:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2011 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |