Scouting Report
Saku Koivu holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.2% vs Koivu 50.4% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.1%
Defensive zone
Koivu 70.4%
Neutral zone
Koivu 52.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
MacKinnon
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKinnon
Koivu
Last 6: MacKinnon 3-3 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Koivu
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
1
MacKinnon
Koivu
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Koivu
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (407)
50.4% (912)
-8.4%
Power Play
51.2% (43)
59.1% (44)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
46.8% (111)
+3.2%
On even strength, Koivu has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (350).
MacKinnon shoots right. Koivu is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (367).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Koivu
Home
42.1% (202)
51.5% (610)
Away
43.6% (250)
49.0% (457)
By Period
MacKinnon
Koivu
P1
43.3%
48.5%
P2
41.5%
51.5%
P3
44.2%
51.1%
OT
37.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
41.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
42.9%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 2 | 19:32 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 1 | 11:20 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |