Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 46.9% vs Carrick 49.5% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 62.2%
Defensive zone
McKegg 51.7%
Neutral zone
McKegg 58.9%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
McKegg
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McKegg
Carrick
Last 6: McKegg 2-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
1
0
McKegg
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
McKegg
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (146)
48.9% (352)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (14)
42.2% (45)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McKegg is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (57).
McKegg shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
McKegg
Carrick
Home
45.3% (64)
46.9% (192)
Away
44.8% (96)
51.6% (221)
By Period
McKegg
Carrick
P1
48.1%
48.1%
P2
50.0%
50.0%
P3
37.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
45.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 07:51 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:29 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |